Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."